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Are Home Prices Falling in Fairfax? A Market Trend Analysis

Updated: Aug 17

Are home prices falling in Fairfax? Many people in Fairfax, both homeowners and potential buyers, have been wondering if home prices are going down.

Unfortunately, the answer is not as simple as it seems.

In the world of real estate, market trends can fluctuate based on a myriad of factors - from interest rates to inventory levels.

To truly understand whether home prices are falling in Fairfax, we need to delve deeper into these variables and their impact on the local housing market.

Are Home Prices Falling in Fairfax

The Current State of the Northern Virginia Housing Market

As we look into the present condition of Northern Virginia's real estate market, it is evident that there has been a notable alteration in patterns. The typical spring trend saw an increase in mortgage rates beginning in 2023, which subsequently led to a slowdown in home sales.

This escalation in mortgage rates resulted in homeowners holding onto their properties longer due to refinanced loans with interest below 3%. Consequently, this action tightened inventories and caused unit sales to decline by low double digits.

In response to these changes, buyers have become more cautious about entering the market. This is largely due to fears around higher interest rates and potentially volatile markets. Despite these concerns, though, some areas within Northern Virginia continue to see robust activity.

A closer look at specific regions reveals interesting insights. For instance, Arlington experienced a steady flow of transactions despite higher prices compared with other counties like Fairfax or Loudoun.

Are Home Prices Falling in Fairfax: Increased Prices & Decreased Sales Volume

The increased cost coupled with decreased availability has made for an intriguing dynamic within our local real estate landscape. While sellers are enjoying premium prices for their homes largely due to limited supply, buyers, on the other hand, are finding themselves having fewer options, leading them to often pay above asking price to secure their dream property.

This situation presents unique challenges and opportunities depending on whether you're looking to buy or sell your home with Winkelmann Properties. Understanding how to navigate through such scenarios can be crucial when making decisions related to buying or selling residential property in the Northern Virginia area.

Are Home Prices Falling in Fairfax

A Closer Look at Fairfax County's Real Estate Market

Despite the slowdown in the Northern Virginia housing market, Fairfax County has shown remarkable resilience. Particularly in the single-family homes sector, stability is expected to prevail.

This forecast suggests a slight increase despite challenging circumstances such as low double-digit drops in unit sales due to homeowners retaining their properties with refinanced loans below 3%. This trend aligns with broader Northern Virginia housing market trends where supply constraints persist.

Median Sold Price Reached $690K

In April of this year, amidst these potentially volatile conditions, median home prices reached new heights - specifically hitting $690K, which represents growth from previous years' values.

The implications of rising home prices are manifold for buyers and sellers alike. Sellers who purchased when costs were lower or those considering downsizing may find themselves well-positioned to profit handsomely if they choose to sell now.

However, potential buyers might face increased challenges securing affordable options within this escalating pricing landscape without substantial financial backing or access to competitive mortgage rates.

Impact of Higher Interest Rates on Home Sales

The Northern Virginia housing market has seen a noteworthy transformation due to the recent uptick in interest rates. This rise in mortgage rates inevitably makes purchasing homes more costly, potentially deterring prospective buyers and slowing down home sales.

In April 2023, for instance, we observed a marked decline in unit sales compared to the same period last year. According to data from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR), there was an alarming drop of approximately 33.6%. This decline clearly indicates how higher interest rates have created hurdles for potential homeowners looking to buy property.

This downward trend extends beyond just unit sales; active listings also saw a decrease, with only slightly over one thousand units available on the market. This represents yet another dip when compared to figures from previous years. One plausible explanation could be that current homeowners are holding onto their properties because they're locked into low-rate mortgages, rather than selling up and risking exposure to increased borrowing costs amidst this Northern Virginia housing market crash scenario.

These concurrent trends - declining unit sales coupled with fewer active listings - paint an illustrative picture of our local real estate landscape under pressure from rising interest rates.

  • Navigating Through Market Changes: To successfully navigate through these changes as either sellers or buyers contemplating entering or exiting this potentially volatile market, strategic planning based on these emerging patterns within Fairfax County's residential forecast is required.

Grasping not only what is transpiring, but why it's occurring can supply invaluable information that will enable you to make informed choices concerning purchasing or disposing of real estate in this area of Virginia.

Are Home Prices Falling in Fairfax

Fairfax County's Residential Market Forecast

From single-family homes to townhouses and condominiums - all segments of the residential real estate market are feeling this impact. The increase in costs due to higher interest rates has created a barrier for potential homebuyers leading towards these trends.

How Will Condominium Prices Fare?

In contrast with some aspects of this potentially volatile market, NVAR's Residential Market Forecast anticipates that condo prices will hold steady throughout 2023 despite decreasing unit sales. This stability may offer an attractive investment opportunity amidst other uncertainties.

The forecast predicts around an 11% drop in condo units sold over the year due to factors like increasing interest rates and tight inventory levels. This could shift us into a buyer's market where supply outweighs demand, which might be beneficial for those considering investing within this segment of Northern Virginia's real estate landscape.

Navigating through such times requires careful planning, whether you're looking at buying or selling property, especially given how dynamic Fairfax County's residential real estate environment can be during periods like these.

Year-Over-Year Comparison of Fairfax County Housing Market

In a potentially volatile market such as this, understanding localized trends is crucial for strategic decision-making. Let's delve into some city-specific insights within Fairfax County.

City Highlights - McLean & Fairfax

Taking a closer look at McLean reveals that active listings increased by over ten percent year-over-year - evidence of homeowners leveraging continued price growth to sell their properties amidst changing conditions.

Moving on to Fairfax City, we see a different narrative unfold. Here there was an impressive surge in active listings - up by 70% compared to last year. This could be indicative of property owners looking to cash out before any potential downturn or perhaps new developments entering the real estate market.

Average Days On Market (DOM)

The average DOM showed variations across these two cities too, but one thing remained constant — homes sold faster than last year, indicating high demand among buyers despite rising mortgage rates and tightening inventory.

Sold Listings vs New Listings
  • Homes stayed longer on the market in McLean, suggesting slightly softer demand or maybe more expensive inventory taking time to move off shelves.

  • Sold listings were down, reflecting the overall northern Virginia housing market experienced trend likely due in large part to factors like increasing mortgage rates and tighter inventories.

  • New listing numbers, however, saw slight increases, hinting at optimism from sellers about future prospects of real estate sales given the current circumstances where median prices are still growing steadily, even though unit sales are decreasing somewhat due to the

In Fairfax County, the Northern Virginia housing market is currently in a potentially unstable phase, creating both opportunities and difficulties for buyers and sellers.

The dynamics of this real estate market present unique opportunities and challenges to both buyers and sellers.

Navigating the Market as a Buyer

In light of decreasing interest rates from near seven percent to just below six percent, potential homebuyers may find some relief. Lower borrowing costs could stimulate demand among prospective homeowners hoping to capitalize on these more favorable conditions.

However, it's crucial not only to consider mortgage rates but also inventory levels when planning your purchase strategy. With tight inventories across many parts of Northern Virginia including Fairfax County, competition among buyers can intensify, leading prices higher again.

To navigate this challenging landscape successfully as a buyer in today's Northern Virginia housing market, experienced with continued price growth despite a total unit sales drop due to high-interest rates, you must stay informed about ongoing trends such as timing entry strategically based on the latest developments within the industry.

Keep a close eye on changes occurring in local residential markets here throughout the Arlington area and surrounding regions. Therefore, remember to consult professional advice before making any major financial decisions like purchasing properties, particularly during periods of heightened volatility and uncertainty, similar to the ones we're experiencing presently in the region. Specifically, rest assured knowing Winkelmann Properties is committed to providing reliable, up-to-date information to help guide your journey towards achieving your goals effectively, efficiently, confidently, securely, and safely.


Understanding the Fairfax housing market isn't as simple as a yes or no question.

The Northern Virginia real estate scene is complex, influenced by factors such as interest rates and inventory levels.

Despite an overall slowdown in the market due to rising mortgage rates, single-family homes in Fairfax County are holding steady with slight price gains expected into 2023.

Tighter inventories have led to declines in unit sales across all property types - from townhomes to condominiums.

Yet amidst these challenges, median home prices continue their upward trajectory while active listings see significant increases in areas like McLean and Fairfax within the county.

If you're wondering about home prices falling in Fairfax, it's clear that this dynamic market requires careful navigation for both buyers and sellers alike.

To make sense of these trends and strategize your next move effectively, whether buying or selling a home, turn to Brad Winkelmann Properties. We offer local estate advice tailored specifically for Arlington area real estate needs based on current market conditions.

Brad Winkelmann is a former police officer and veteran Real Estate Broker in Arlington Virginia. Many of his clients are Civilian and Veterans of the Military, Law Enforcement, Federal Government Employees and Defense Contractors, and Technology Professionals.

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